Since 2014, “Abnormal” turned into one of the most buzz words because of constantly unexpected incidents. On March 30, at the eve of the opening of annual MB Asian Ferroalloys Conference, with continuous attention to the relevant news about compatriots on MH370 flight, Chinese Mn-ores’ buyers started journey to Pacific Place for meeting with old friends in same field. However, Hong Kong suffered “Black Rain”(plus large hail storm) which happened two once-in-a-century before they arrived in Conrad Hotel, which led to more than 200 flights’ delay or cancel at Chek Lap Kok International Airport. This unwarranted freak storm had repetitiously occurred until the conference officially opened on April 2. Moreover, Hong Kong observatory announced that the bad weather would be continued until the end of the conference on April 3.

   Before this, the author had released a guess in Nanning Summit on March 21 that the price of South African half of manganese carbonate ore would slide by $ 1 /DMTU and firstly decrease $0.5, meanwhile, the price of SiMn would remain stable in whole April. With many visits to Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou and other main bases of Mn-alloys, the author felt shocking for the large magnitude of cut, stop and leave.

   After Nanning conference, Those famous manganese miners gradually released load prices(CIF) in April, which showed those drops are around $0.5/DMTU. On April 2,HBIS officially released the final tender price: SiMn 6517 was RMB6600/ton, RMB50/ton dropped from March; MnFe65 replaced to RMB5700/ton, RMB150/ton dropped. Comparing with actual harsh industrial fact on overall reduction and shut down of Chinese Mn-alloys, Obviously, the price down of Mn-ores was not enough with port stocks’ price drop volume, the price fall of Mn-alloys also exceeded expectations.

   China produced 11.03 million tons of SiMn(NBS) in 2013, which was similar with 2012. In contrast, Overseas Mn-ores’ production increased rapidly. South African increased by 35% to 8.55 million tons, Australian increased by 26% to 6.39 million tons in 2013. In February 2014, Mn-ores increased by 25.5% again in South Africa. There was no doubt that the rapid growth of the South African Mn-ores was not only far more than once dominated Australia and became global leader, but also was forced to pre-empt cut price to deal with the long-term monopoly ore price.

   Decreased price of Mn-ores outsize had been the industrial consensus and the plunged trend of dock stock intensified trade losses. Under the situation of reversal trend in RMB exchange rate, the buyers of Mn-ores’ futures surely paid no attention to how much the price cut down when historical highest inventory is enlarging at Chinese harbors. They only care who is the possible buyer to deal with such huge stocks. Compared to 2013 annual conference, less participants arrived in HK, despite rainy outside, those buyers preferred smoking at outside reluctantly to staying inside.

   Heartbreak is the result of Mn-ores’ price drop, while happiness is the continuity of optimism. Losses.  After experiencing several years in this field, players of Mn-ores seems have found many methods of self-mockery. Because of the increasingly severe imbalance between supply and demand, almost buyers prefer to make friends during conference, look at heavy rain through window, or enjoy relaxing life, but not care those explanations about the traffic jam, currency inflation, devaluation or SRCC in South Africa. Just like a pretty girl said in weixin:” Oh, what will you stay for in the conference? Why not slipping out for shopping?”